Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.