The Former President's Ukrainian Peace Plan Constitutes a Benefit to Russia's Leader

For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm approach on Ukraine. Following making warnings of "serious consequences" in August if Russia's president persisted obstructing peace discussions, he finally imposed substantial penalties on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

But, with his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democracy in danger. Although bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the initiative effectively undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business experience, Trump persists to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about dominating a charred swath of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to eliminate it so it stops functions as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's increasing autocracy prevents them.

Land Giveaways

Although keeping in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that represent a key barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear route to the capital in case he eventually decide to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan sets no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "All radical ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken comparable treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of occupied land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust Russia this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "strong unified military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics range from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not just block the nation Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. But in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, something they have {not